Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 35.645275 38.482936 41.599708 45.308929 49.646344 54.614231 60.819916
2025-10-12 32.263789 36.086700 40.572437 46.336797 53.727433 63.166390 76.662097
2025-10-19 29.978929 34.337335 39.689710 46.963144 56.980224 71.001964 93.749134
2025-10-26 28.156259 32.816196 38.736901 47.140166 59.411199 78.023489 112.133544
2025-11-02 26.403566 31.156603 37.345506 46.417859 60.279965 82.733415 128.632140
2025-11-09 24.819900 29.559115 35.845003 45.291748 60.255206 85.855209 143.604557
2025-11-16 23.532152 28.247156 34.601234 44.361448 60.331583 89.093240 160.785472
2025-11-23 22.507978 27.214802 33.652348 43.747149 60.792370 93.119393 182.972322
2025-11-30 22.034006 26.896975 33.679550 44.615997 63.906434 103.354267 234.238309
2025-12-07 21.268502 26.121040 32.974858 44.229899 64.675038 108.773049 277.357377
2025-12-14 20.351098 25.082164 31.813348 42.985933 63.640567 109.677876 303.357681
2025-12-21 19.618389 24.272586 30.947960 42.160783 63.304857 112.263930 344.687414
2025-12-28 19.514384 24.383690 31.514283 43.872391 68.456639 131.915984 592.511734
2026-01-04 19.212444 24.189807 31.597389 44.758746 72.121688 149.936955 1133.834871
2026-01-11 18.864612 23.906970 31.516549 45.335124 75.236052 168.683138 3312.112916
2026-01-18 18.458621 23.515041 31.232243 45.499577 77.430820 186.105262 NaN
2026-01-25 17.916928 22.893561 30.538482 44.820641 77.433440 194.529013 NaN
2026-02-01 17.337927 22.193755 29.682372 43.761539 76.309966 197.216208 NaN
2026-02-08 16.828377 21.583120 28.946698 42.885705 75.545630 201.567942 NaN
2026-02-15 16.403793 21.088855 28.382375 42.306917 75.490114 210.042117 NaN
2026-02-22 16.255775 21.015114 28.515070 43.125431 79.398753 246.635004 NaN
2026-03-01 15.909854 20.620162 28.084409 42.761790 79.916368 262.840214 NaN
2026-03-08 15.443474 20.023255 27.286694 41.589197 77.901021 258.507856 NaN